adoptionincreasesconfidence 95/100 · magnitude 761 Feb 2025
In a randomised controlled trial with about 5,000 customer support agents, access to a generative AI assistant increased issues resolved per hour by about 14% on average, with gains of roughly 34% for the least experienced workers and negligible effects for the most experienced.
The strongest causal evidence available on AI in service work. Note carefully what it does and does not show: it measures output per agent, not headcount. Because it compresses the experience gap, it can reduce demand for senior specialists while raising productivity of new hires.
Source: Brynjolfsson, Li & Raymond — Generative AI at Work (Quarterly Journal of Economics) · Updated 1 Feb 2025
model releaseincreasesconfidence 90/100 · magnitude 6213 May 2024
GPT-4o added a single model handling text, audio and image, enabling sub-second conversational voice — the capability precondition for substituting routine telephone work.
Capability event, not an adoption or labour-market event. It raises the capability component for voice-heavy tasks only.
Source: OpenAI · Updated 13 May 2024
model releaseincreasesconfidence 88/100 · magnitude 4623 Jul 2024
Llama 3.1 405B and subsequent open-weight releases let organisations run near-frontier models on their own infrastructure, changing the cost and compliance barriers to automation.
A cost-and-adoption enabler rather than a capability jump. Included because cost is one of the main reasons high capability does not translate into adoption.
Source: Meta AI · Updated 23 Jul 2024
researchincreasesconfidence 82/100 · magnitude 7424 Aug 2023
Using O*NET task descriptions scored by GPT-4, the authors estimate that about 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their tasks affected by large language models, and about 19% could see at least 50% of their tasks affected.
This is a *capability and exposure* estimate produced by having a model rate task descriptions — not a measurement of employment change. It is the most-cited exposure figure in the field and is included here as an exposure input, weighted accordingly.
Source: Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock — GPTs are GPTs (arXiv:2303.10130) · Updated 24 Aug 2023
researchdecreasesconfidence 78/100 · magnitude 4513 May 2024
Estimating that only a small share of tasks are currently cost-effective to automate, the paper projects total-factor-productivity gains of no more than about 0.66% over ten years, with limited aggregate labour-demand effects.
Included as a counterweight. Exposure — even high task exposure — does not imply large aggregate job loss, because adoption depends on cost, reliability, regulation and complementary investment. This evidence lowers the labour-market component rather than capability.
Source: Acemoglu — The Simple Macroeconomics of AI (NBER Working Paper 32487) · Updated 13 May 2024
adoptionincreasesconfidence 72/100 · magnitude 541 Apr 2025
The AI Index reports continued increases in the share of organisations using generative AI in at least one business function, alongside rapid benchmark gains on reasoning and coding tasks.
Survey-based adoption evidence across firms. Useful for the adoption component and for interpreting why capability and adoption diverge by occupation.
Source: Stanford HAI — Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025 · Updated 1 Apr 2025
adoptiondecreasesconfidence 72/100 · magnitude 421 Feb 2024
The authors argue that AI can enable workers with less formal training to perform expert tasks, potentially rebuilding middle-class occupational demand rather than only displacing it.
A credible counter-direction hypothesis. Included so that the index does not systematically overstate substitution, and because the strongest experimental evidence (support agents, consultants) shows exactly this experience-compression effect.
Source: Autor, Levy & Solan — Applying AI to Rebuild Middle-Class Jobs (NBER 32140) · Updated 1 Feb 2024
adoptionincreasesconfidence 68/100 · magnitude 5214 Aug 2025
Indeed Hiring Lab scores the skills appearing in job postings against AI capability and reports that the share of skills generative AI could perform has continued to increase, with larger effects for software development and customer-facing roles than for hands-on occupations.
Job postings measure what employers ask for, which is a leading indicator but not employment. Exact series values are not reproduced here; read them from the source. Used to inform the job-posting-change signal type.
Source: Indeed Hiring Lab — AI at Work series · Updated 14 Aug 2025
adoptionincreasesconfidence 52/100 · magnitude 5013 Jul 2023
A meta-analysis of early controlled studies reported an average productivity increase of about 66% across supported tasks, with wide variance by task type.
Useful directionally but the average is dominated by small short-duration studies on well-specified tasks. Weighted low. The variance, not the mean, is the useful finding.
Source: Nielsen Norman Group — AI Improves Employee Productivity by 66% (meta-analysis) · Updated 13 Jul 2023