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Dossier #44 // technical exposure assessment

Moderate exposure

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Category: Transportation & material moving · SOC 53-3032.00 · Industry: Transport & logistics

AI Exposure (AI-estimated)

40/100
0.0

Low exposure

Last updated

3 Oct 2026

19 hours ago · sources: BLS OES (approx) · O*NET

Evidence

0 sources

21 core tasks shown · 8 secondary hidden

Verdict

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Moderate exposure: only 4 of 21 core tasks show high task automation potential : exposure 40/100 (low exposure).

No model has published evidence mapped to this occupation yet - the score comes from generic task assessment.

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Score breakdown

Why this score?

Every component is stored with the score row and can be recomputed from the evidence table.

AI Exposure (composite)40/100

Methodology 2026-09-a · score v1.0 · input hash 2ee37a67828fc5bd

AI capability exposure72/100

Strength of current models on the capabilities this job's tasks require.

Task automation potential60/100

Task-level exposure, weighted by task importance. A component of the headline, not the headline itself.

Observed AI adoption0/100

Evidence that AI is actually being used for this work.

Labour-market signal0/100

Observed changes in postings, employment or earnings.

Evidence strength0/100

Quantity and source quality of the evidence behind the score.

0 evidence item(s) contribute. Calculated 19 hours ago. 3 Oct 2026 UTC.

Overview

Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). May be required to unload truck. Requires commercial drivers' license. Includes tow truck drivers.

Employment

≈2,100,000

approx. BLS OES

Median wage

≈$54,000

approx. BLS OES

Tasks tracked

29

linked to this occupation

Employment and wage values are approximate reference figures from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics programme, stored with an approximation flag. Verify against the O*NET record and BLS before quoting them.

Tasks

Task-level automation exposure

Core tasks only. Exposure describes how much of the task output current AI can produce or substantially assist - not whether the task disappears. Secondary shared-baseline edges are hidden until per-occupation curation is complete.

Evidence

Evidence trail

0 attributed item(s). Confidence reflects study design: randomised and production deployments score higher than platform observations, which score higher than projections.

No occupation-specific evidence has been mapped yet. This occupation is scored from generic task assessment only - a genuinely weaker basis, and the reason its score is marked low-confidence.

Historical trend

Exposure over time

Backcast series: recomputed at quarterly checkpoints using only the models and evidence published by each date.

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers AI exposure backcast, quarterly from 2021Reconstructed exposure series with 23 checkpoints. Current value 40 out of 100. 5 observed snapshots recorded since tracking began.1000502021-01-012026-07-010918
Score · 23 points · 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-01

Reconstruction, not measurement. 5 observed daily snapshot(s) exist for this occupation; the earlier part of the curve is derived by applying the current methodology to the model releases and published evidence available at each past date.

Recent events

Signals affecting this occupation

No events match this filter yet. New verified events appear here as analysis completes.

Related

Related Occupations

Occupations sharing major SOC group (53) with Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers.

faq

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions regarding Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers and AI exposure.

Will AI replace Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers?

Current AI models show an exposure score of 40/100 for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers. This measures technical capability to assist or automate specific tasks rather than predicted immediate job loss. Moderate exposure reflects assistance in routine information-handling while core responsibilities require human judgment.

Which tasks in Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers have the highest AI exposure?

The most exposed tasks for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers include "Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulatio…" (90% exposure) and "Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes." (90% exposure).

What aspects of Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers can AI not do yet?

Tasks with the lowest AI exposure for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers include "Remove debris from loaded trailers." (5% exposure) and "Perform emergency roadside repairs, such as changing tires or installing light bulbs, tire chains, or spark plugs." (5% exposure). These responsibilities typically require physical dexterity, licensed human accountability, or complex interpersonal navigation.

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Notice: All ratings shown are AI-estimated technical exposure scores measuring technical capabilities across O*NET task statements, not predicted job loss. Contains information from O*NET 31.0 by the U.S. Department of Labor, ETA, used under CC BY 4.0.