Occupation score change
IMPACT 10project manager exposure increased 1.0 points
AI Exposure Score moved from a previous calculation to 52/100 under methodology v1.0. 2 evidence item(s) contributed.
Project Management Specialists
Category: Business & financial · SOC 13-1082.00 · Industry: Administration
52/100
increased by +1.0 vs last
Moderate exposure
3 Oct 2026
19 hours ago · sources: BLS OES (approx) · O*NET
2 sources
20 core tasks shown
Project Management Specialists High exposure: 9 of 20 core tasks show high task automation potential : exposure 52/100 (moderate exposure).
No model has published evidence mapped to this occupation yet - the score comes from generic task assessment.
Score breakdown
Why this score?
Every component is stored with the score row and can be recomputed from the evidence table.
AI Exposure (composite)52/100
Methodology 2026-09-a · score v1.0 · input hash 7f12e8a40c2226b7
AI capability exposure69/100
Strength of current models on the capabilities this job's tasks require.
Task automation potential53/100
Task-level exposure, weighted by task importance. A component of the headline, not the headline itself.
Observed AI adoption54/100
Evidence that AI is actually being used for this work.
Labour-market signal0/100
Observed changes in postings, employment or earnings.
Evidence strength47/100
Quantity and source quality of the evidence behind the score.
2 evidence item(s) contribute. Calculated 19 hours ago. 3 Oct 2026 UTC.
Overview
Analyze and coordinate the schedule, timeline, procurement, staffing, and budget of a product or service on a per project basis. Lead and guide the work of technical staff. May serve as a point of contact for the client or customer.
Employment
≈950,000
approx. BLS OES
Median wage
≈$98,000
approx. BLS OES
Tasks tracked
20
linked to this occupation
Employment and wage values are approximate reference figures from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics programme, stored with an approximation flag. Verify against the O*NET record and BLS before quoting them.
Tasks
Task-level automation exposure
Core tasks only. Exposure describes how much of the task output current AI can produce or substantially assist - not whether the task disappears. Secondary shared-baseline edges are hidden until per-occupation curation is complete.
core task · importance 4.5/5
core task · importance 4.5/5
core task · importance 4.4/5
core task · importance 4.3/5
core task · importance 4.3/5
core task · importance 4.3/5
core task · importance 4.1/5
core task · importance 4.1/5
core task · importance 3.9/5
core task · importance 3.9/5
core task · importance 3.9/5
core task · importance 3.8/5
core task · importance 3.8/5
core task · importance 3.8/5
core task · importance 3.8/5
core task · importance 3.8/5
core task · importance 3.6/5
core task · importance 3.6/5
core task · importance 3.6/5
core task · importance 3.6/5
Evidence
Evidence trail
2 attributed item(s). Confidence reflects study design: randomised and production deployments score higher than platform observations, which score higher than projections.
- researchneutralconfidence 90/100 · magnitude 5518 Sept 2023
In a field experiment with 758 consultants, GPT-4 users completed about 12% more tasks, about 25% faster, with about 40% higher quality on tasks within the model's capability frontier — but were about 19 percentage points more likely to produce incorrect answers on tasks outside that frontier.
The clearest published statement of the 'jagged frontier' problem: measured gains depend entirely on whether the task is inside the model's competence. This is why this site scores tasks rather than whole occupations and keeps capability separate from adoption.
Source: Dell'Acqua et al. — Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier (Harvard Business School Working Paper 24-013) · Updated 18 Sept 2023
- adoptionincreasesconfidence 72/100 · magnitude 541 Apr 2025
The AI Index reports continued increases in the share of organisations using generative AI in at least one business function, alongside rapid benchmark gains on reasoning and coding tasks.
Survey-based adoption evidence across firms. Useful for the adoption component and for interpreting why capability and adoption diverge by occupation.
Source: Stanford HAI — Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025 · Updated 1 Apr 2025
Historical trend
Exposure over time
Backcast series: recomputed at quarterly checkpoints using only the models and evidence published by each date.
Reconstruction, not measurement. 5 observed daily snapshot(s) exist for this occupation; the earlier part of the curve is derived by applying the current methodology to the model releases and published evidence available at each past date.
Recent events
Signals affecting this occupation
- AI adoption signalIMPACT 54
Business adoption of AI rose again in 2025 surveys
The AI Index reports continued increases in the share of organisations using generative AI in at least one business function, alongside rapid benchmark gains on reasoning and coding tasks.
- Research published
Consultants performed better inside the AI frontier and worse outside it
In a field experiment with 758 consultants, GPT-4 users completed about 12% more tasks, about 25% faster, with about 40% higher quality on tasks within the model's capability frontier — but were about 19 percentage points more likely to produce incorrect answers on tasks outside that frontier.
Related
Related Occupations
Occupations sharing major SOC group (13) with Project Management Specialists.
faq
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions regarding Project Management Specialists and AI exposure.
Will AI replace Project Management Specialists?
Current AI models show an exposure score of 52/100 for Project Management Specialists. This measures technical capability to assist or automate specific tasks rather than predicted immediate job loss. Moderate exposure reflects assistance in routine information-handling while core responsibilities require human judgment.
Which tasks in Project Management Specialists have the highest AI exposure?
The most exposed tasks for Project Management Specialists include "Monitor project milestones and deliverables." (85% exposure) and "Monitor costs incurred by project staff to identify budget issues." (85% exposure).
What aspects of Project Management Specialists can AI not do yet?
Tasks with the lowest AI exposure for Project Management Specialists include "Negotiate with project stakeholders or suppliers to obtain resources or materials." (25% exposure) and "Confer with project personnel to identify and resolve problems." (25% exposure). These responsibilities typically require physical dexterity, licensed human accountability, or complex interpersonal navigation.
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Notice: All ratings shown are AI-estimated technical exposure scores measuring technical capabilities across O*NET task statements, not predicted job loss. Contains information from O*NET 31.0 by the U.S. Department of Labor, ETA, used under CC BY 4.0.