Occupation score change
IMPACT 10graphic designer exposure increased 1.0 points
AI Exposure Score moved from a previous calculation to 55/100 under methodology v1.0. 4 evidence item(s) contributed.
55/100
increased by +1.0 vs last
Moderate exposure
3 Oct 2026
19 hours ago · sources: BLS OES (approx) · O*NET
4 sources
17 core tasks shown · 2 secondary hidden
Graphic Designers High exposure: 9 of 17 core tasks show high task automation potential : exposure 55/100 (moderate exposure).
2 models with published evidence against this job. Strongest: FLUX.1 (90/100 capability).
Score breakdown
Why this score?
Every component is stored with the score row and can be recomputed from the evidence table.
AI Exposure (composite)55/100
Methodology 2026-09-a · score v1.0 · input hash 4e0e1444f848c6a8
AI capability exposure74/100
Strength of current models on the capabilities this job's tasks require.
Task automation potential69/100
Task-level exposure, weighted by task importance. A component of the headline, not the headline itself.
Observed AI adoption0/100
Evidence that AI is actually being used for this work.
Labour-market signal64/100
Observed changes in postings, employment or earnings.
Evidence strength62/100
Quantity and source quality of the evidence behind the score.
4 evidence item(s) contribute. Calculated 19 hours ago. 3 Oct 2026 UTC.
Overview
Design or create graphics to meet specific commercial or promotional needs, such as packaging, displays, or logos. May use a variety of mediums to achieve artistic or decorative effects.
Employment
≈270,000
approx. BLS OES
Median wage
≈$58,000
approx. BLS OES
Tasks tracked
19
linked to this occupation
Employment and wage values are approximate reference figures from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics programme, stored with an approximation flag. Verify against the O*NET record and BLS before quoting them.
Tasks
Task-level automation exposure
Core tasks only. Exposure describes how much of the task output current AI can produce or substantially assist - not whether the task disappears. Secondary shared-baseline edges are hidden until per-occupation curation is complete.
core task · importance 4.7/5
core task · importance 4.7/5
- Determine size and arrangement of illustrative material and copy, and select style and size of type.55
core task · importance 4.6/5
core task · importance 4.6/5
core task · importance 4.5/5
core task · importance 4.5/5
core task · importance 4.5/5
core task · importance 4.3/5
core task · importance 4.3/5
core task · importance 4.2/5
core task · importance 4.1/5
core task · importance 4.1/5
core task · importance 4.1/5
core task · importance 4/5
core task · importance 4/5
core task · importance 3.5/5
core task · importance 3/5
Killers
Which models affect this job most
Ranked by strongest demonstrated capability. Task and evidence counts come from the attributed evidence trail below.
Evidence
Evidence trail
4 attributed item(s). Confidence reflects study design: randomised and production deployments score higher than platform observations, which score higher than projections.
- model releaseincreasesconfidence 88/100 · magnitude 529 Dec 2024
Sora made short text-to-video generation publicly available, followed by competing systems with synchronised audio in 2025.
Applies to short-form motion production. It does not currently replace shooting, interviewing, or long-form post-production, which is why video-editing exposure is moderate rather than extreme.
Source: OpenAI · Updated 9 Dec 2024
- capabilityincreasesconfidence 88/100 · magnitude 721 Aug 2024
FLUX.1 and subsequent open-weight diffusion models produce legible text and layout-consistent imagery, making them usable for marketing collateral rather than only concept art.
Raises the automation component for routine image production tasks. Brand-system design and art direction remain largely unaffected.
Source: Black Forest Labs / Hugging Face Hub · Updated 1 Aug 2024
- labor marketincreasesconfidence 74/100 · magnitude 627 Mar 2024
Using platform data from a large online labour market, the authors find that after ChatGPT's release, jobs more exposed to AI automation experienced a relative decline in the number of projects and in freelancer earnings compared with less-exposed jobs.
One of the few *observational labour-market outcome* studies. It is platform-specific, covers remote freelance work only, and cannot separate AI substitution from other demand shifts. Treated here as a genuine labour-market signal with medium confidence.
Source: Hui, Reshef & Zhou — The Short-Term Effects of Generative AI on Online Labour Markets · Updated 7 Mar 2024
- labor marketincreasesconfidence 72/100 · magnitude 667 Mar 2025
Studying a large stock-content platform around the integration of image-generation models, the authors find a decline in the number of active graphic designers and in their earnings, with effects concentrated in routine and less-distinctive work.
The most directly relevant observational study for visual design work. Platform-specific and limited to stock content rather than brand or agency work, which is why the graphic-designer score is not at the top of the index despite strong capability evidence.
Source: Zhou, Cheng, Burtch & Qiu — The Impact of Generative AI on Creative Workers' Labour Market (arXiv:2503.04956) · Updated 7 Mar 2025
Historical trend
Exposure over time
Backcast series: recomputed at quarterly checkpoints using only the models and evidence published by each date.
Reconstruction, not measurement. 5 observed daily snapshot(s) exist for this occupation; the earlier part of the curve is derived by applying the current methodology to the model releases and published evidence available at each past date.
Recent events
Signals affecting this occupation
- Labour market updateIMPACT 66
After image-generation adoption, fewer active graphic designers and lower earnings
Studying a large stock-content platform around the integration of image-generation models, the authors find a decline in the number of active graphic designers and in their earnings, with effects concentrated in routine and less-distinctive work.
- New modelIMPACT 52
Text-to-video generation became commercially available
Sora made short text-to-video generation publicly available, followed by competing systems with synchronised audio in 2025.
- New capabilityIMPACT 72
Open-weight image models reached production-quality text rendering
FLUX.1 and subsequent open-weight diffusion models produce legible text and layout-consistent imagery, making them usable for marketing collateral rather than only concept art.
- Labour market updateIMPACT 62
Automation-prone freelance work saw fewer projects and lower earnings after ChatGPT
Using platform data from a large online labour market, the authors find that after ChatGPT's release, jobs more exposed to AI automation experienced a relative decline in the number of projects and in freelancer earnings compared with less-exposed jobs.
Related
Related Occupations
Occupations sharing major SOC group (27) with Graphic Designers.
faq
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions regarding Graphic Designers and AI exposure.
Will AI replace Graphic Designers?
Current AI models show an exposure score of 55/100 for Graphic Designers. This measures technical capability to assist or automate specific tasks rather than predicted immediate job loss. Moderate exposure reflects assistance in routine information-handling while core responsibilities require human judgment.
Which tasks in Graphic Designers have the highest AI exposure?
The most exposed tasks for Graphic Designers include "Use computer software to generate new images." (80% exposure) and "Prepare digital files for printing." (80% exposure).
What aspects of Graphic Designers can AI not do yet?
Tasks with the lowest AI exposure for Graphic Designers include "Confer with clients to discuss and determine layout design." (20% exposure) and "Produce still and animated graphics for on-air and taped portions of television news broadcasts, using electronic video…" (30% exposure). These responsibilities typically require physical dexterity, licensed human accountability, or complex interpersonal navigation.
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Notice: All ratings shown are AI-estimated technical exposure scores measuring technical capabilities across O*NET task statements, not predicted job loss. Contains information from O*NET 31.0 by the U.S. Department of Labor, ETA, used under CC BY 4.0.